The first cracks always show up in retail.
I’ve seen this cycle play out for over 30 years. Every downturn starts with a single trigger. This time, it’s underperforming commercial debt.
Right now, landlords are holding the bag on massive vacancies they didn’t see coming. But the real problem isn’t just empty space. It’s the debt behind those deals. Retail tenants are disappearing as fast as Amazon is expanding. And the next domino is the lenders tightening their credit boxes.
This isn’t just about retail. It’s the warning shot. Smart investors know how to read the signs and shift before the wave hits.
Credit is tightening. Capital is retreating. That’s when the real players move.
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